Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
